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Even with significant headwinds from reduced housing affordability, elevated interest rates, and tight labor markets, Arizona continues to generate solid economic growth. Job gains are far outpacing national growth in the preliminary data and may be growing even faster than the data suggest. Phoenix inflation has decelerated below the national average, leaving real personal income growth in Arizona above the U.
Taxable retail plus remote and restaurant and bar sales, however, have slowed significantly in The baseline outlook calls for Arizona, Phoenix, and Tucson to continue growing, and to outpace the U. Risks to the U. A modest U. This forecast was completed before election day. The results of the election inject significant uncertainty into the outlook.
It is unclear as of this writing how the incoming Federal administration will implement policies discussed during the campaign. However, there are significant downside risks to the state and national economies from large and widespread increases in tariffs, as well as mass deportations. Stay tuned to future forecasts as the policy landscape becomes clearer. Overall, according to preliminary data, state jobs were up 65, over the year in October, which translated into 2.
That was above the nation at 1. Year to date through October, jobs were up 68,, or 2. Again, Arizona outpaced the U. Keep in mind that the U. Bureau of Labor Statistics has indicated that based on data through March of they expect to revise Arizona jobs up with the benchmark revisions to be released in March Phoenix accounted for Year to date, Phoenix jobs were up 52, That translated into a 2. As for the state, the U. Bureau of Labor Statistics expects to revise Phoenix jobs up with the benchmark revision in March Tucson MSA jobs were also up over the year in October, rising by 3, However, that translated into relatively slow growth of 0.
That was below the state and national averages. Year to date, Tucson jobs were up 3, or 0. The U. Bureau of Labor Statistics does not release preliminary benchmark analyses for smaller metropolitan areas, like Tucson and Prescott. Prescott MSA jobs were up 1, over the year in October, for 2.